The 2023 Tony Awards:
Our Predictions
At last the Super Bowl of theater is upon us! As usual, Mike and I have given thought to all of the shows we've seen this season - in this case, every new musical that opened. Thanks to that (small) achievement, we are able to fairly consider each musical category at The 76th Annual Tony Awards.
Below are our picks for "Will Win" and "Should Win," as well as notes for each. We've also included a few "Overlooked" nominees. Of course, we congratulate all of the nominees and winners. It was a great season!
| Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Alex Newell | Will Win: | Alex Newell |
| Should Win: | Justin Cooley | Should Win: | Justin Cooley |
| Overlooked: | Gaten Matarazzo | Overlooked: | Gaten Matarazzo |
| Jeff's Notes | I loved everyone in this category, so no losers here for me. Justin Cooley deserves it the most - he's really in a leading role and it's an incredible debut. |
| Mike's Notes: | The race here is between a huge voice with a splashy number (Newell) and a fully rounded, lived-in performance (Cooley). I think the former usually wins, but I prefer the latter. It's another close call, though! |
| Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Bonnie Milligan | Will Win: | Bonnie Milligan |
| Should Win: | Bonnie Milligan | Should Win: | Bonnie Milligan |
| Overlooked: | Carolee Carmello | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | Betsy Wolfe could be a spoiler here and I'm fine with that. |
| Mike's Notes: | This is probably the closest thing to a lock in a season where there aren't any runaway favorites. |
| Best Book of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Shucked | Will Win: | Kimberly Akimbo |
| Should Win: | Kimberly Akimbo | Should Win: | Kimberly Akimbo |
| Overlooked: | | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | They'll want to give Shucked something important. And when was the last time people talked this much about the book of any musical? |
| Mike's Notes: | Almost all of the nominees are worthy competitors this year, so I'm sure I'll be happy with the results unless New York, New York somehow wins. |
| Best Score Written for the Theater |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Kimberly Akimbo | Will Win: | Kimberly Akimbo |
| Should Win: | Kimberly Akimbo | Should Win: | Kimberly Akimbo |
| Jeff's Notes | I wouldn't be surprised if Some Like It Hot won. But, I have to agree with Mike. |
| Mike's Notes: | Some Like It Hot has a chance at a mild upset, but it's not even close for me. |
| Best Orchestrations |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | New York, New York | Will Win: | Kimberly Akimbo |
| Should Win: | Kimberly Akimbo | Should Win: | Kimberly Akimbo |
| Overlooked: | Bad Cinderella | Overlooked: | Bad Cinderella |
| Jeff's Notes | There are no losers in this field; all are worthy. Kimberly Akimbo has a sound that kinda sneaks up on you, which I love. I'm not sure the voters know what to do with this, so New York, New York or Some Like It Hot may find itself with this as a consolation prize. |
| Mike's Notes: | At first I picked Some Like It Hot as the likely winner, but this is a group who gave the prize to Girl From the North Country last year, so I think they'll appreciate the lighter and quirkier sound of Kimberly Akimbo. |
| Best Revival of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Parade | Will Win: | Parade |
| Should Win: | Parade | Should Win: | Sweeney Todd |
| Overlooked: | Dancin' | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | I've shocked myself in not selecting Sweeney Todd; it's the very best production of it I've ever seen (and that's a lot). But Parade is just so powerful. Whatever happens here, I'm okay with it. Except Camelot. That would be unforgivable. |
| Mike's Notes: | It's a tough choice between the top two here, and I will neither be surprised nor disappointed if either of them wins.
|
| Best Scenic Design of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | New York, New York | Will Win: | New York, New York |
| Should Win: | New York, New York | Should Win: | New York, New York |
| Overlooked: | Bad Cinderella | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | It looked stunning. Period. |
| Mike's Notes: | I didn't like very much about New York, New York, but the set was easily the cleverest and most versatile of the year. |
| Best Lighting Design of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | & Juliet | Will Win: | & Juliet |
| Should Win: | Sweeney Todd | Should Win: | & Juliet |
| Overlooked: | Bad Cinderella | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | & Juliet was the whole visual package, but Natasha Katz's work on Sweeney was masterful - it added to the thrills, and was just as notable for its absence of light. |
| Mike's Notes: | I know the category is "best lighting," not "most lighting," but the creative excess of & Juliet should take home the prize. |
| Best Costume Design of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Some Like It Hot | Will Win: | Some Like It Hot |
| Should Win: | & Juliet | Should Win: | & Juliet |
| Overlooked: | Bad Cinderella | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | This season was really a treasure trove of choices. I thought all of the nominees were outstanding. |
| Mike's Notes: | I really have no idea about this one. I don't even know which one I liked best! |
| Best Sound Design of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Into the Woods | Will Win: | Into the Woods |
| Should Win: | Shucked | Should Win: | Shucked |
| Jeff's Notes | Another "consolation prize" win I think. And Mike is right. |
| Mike's Notes: | Both of these were exceptionally clear from where I sat. Shucked was even better to my ears, but more people seemed to have noticed the sound for Into the Woods. |
| Best Direction of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Michael Arden | Will Win: | Michael Arden |
| Should Win: | Michael Arden | Should Win: | Michael Arden |
| Overlooked: | Thomas Kail | Overlooked: | Thomas Kail |
| Jeff's Notes | If it can't be Arden, please let it be Jessica Stone. Both have given new meaning to a "tight show," and both managed to stay out of their show's way. |
| Mike's Notes: | I'd be happy with Arden or Jessica Stone, but it's really hard to imagine a better Parade than this one. Yet another close one! |
| Best Choreography |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Some Like It Hot | Will Win: | Some Like It Hot |
| Should Win: | & Juliet | Should Win: | Sweeney Todd |
| Jeff's Notes | Hot is the safest bet here for voters. It's good, but nothing really new from Nicholaw. & Juliet would have swept in most other years, and the dancing staging was a thrill ride from start to finish. Stro's choreography was a good thing about NYNY, but there's really such a thing as too much. All of that said, Sweeney was the best pleasant surprise of the season. Who knew it could move? And that it would add to a masterpiece?! |
| Mike's Notes: | My preference here is probably a little quirky. I'm just not that into big, traditional choreography. New York, New York probably has a shot, too. |
| Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | J. Harrison Ghee | Will Win: | J. Harrison Ghee |
| Should Win: | Josh Groban | Should Win: | Josh Groban |
| Overlooked: | Andrew Burnap | Overlooked: | Andrew Burnap |
| Jeff's Notes | I agree with everything Mike says, though I'd also be happy with Ben Platt. |
| Mike's Notes: | No disappointment if Ghee wins, but Groban's new take on a familiar role seems the greater achievement. |
| Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Victoria Clark | Will Win: | Victoria Clark |
| Should Win: | Victoria Clark | Should Win: | Victoria Clark |
| Jeff's Notes | I think Mike reads my mind. I swear we did this separately! |
| Mike's Notes: | Annaleigh Ashford could be the sort-of surprise winner here if the so-called precursor awards (which Clark won last year) are any indication. |
| Best Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Kimberly Akimbo | Will Win: | Kimberly Akimbo |
| Should Win: | Kimberly Akimbo | Should Win: | Kimberly Akimbo |
| Overlooked: | Almost Famous | Overlooked: | Almost Famous |
| Jeff's Notes | Kimberly Akimbo is pretty much the perfect musical, but it isn't "big Broadway." I can live with any of the contenders taking the prize, except New York, New York. |
| Mike's Notes: | Some Like It Hot is obviously the potential spoiler here, but it's been a while since a splashy show beat a critically acclaimed chamber piece like Kimberly Akimbo. The former wouldn't be the worst Best Musical winner by a long shot, but it's about my fifth favorite new musical of the season so I'd be disappointed. |
HOW IT STACKS UP:
Jeff Predicts: 4 - Kimberly Akimbo, 3 - Some Like It Hot, 2 - Parade, 2 - New York, New York, 2 - Shucked, 1 - & Juliet, 1 - Into the Woods
Mike Predicts: 6 - Kimberly Akimbo, 2 - Some Like It Hot, 2 - Parade, 1 - New York, New York, 1 - Shucked, 1 - & Juliet, 1 - Into the Woods, 1 - Sweeney Todd
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