The 2024 Tony Awards:
Our Predictions
At last the Super Bowl of theater is upon us! As usual, Mike and I have given thought to all of the shows we've seen this season - including 1 new play, 2 play revivals, 2 musical revivals and 11 new musicals. As such, we'll do our best to predict the winners in the musical categories at The 77th Annual Tony Awards, plus some thoughts in the play categories.
Below are our picks for "Will Win" and "Should Win," as well as notes for each. We've also included a few "Overlooked" nominees. Of course, we congratulate all of the nominees and winners. It was a great season!
| Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Daniel Radcliffe: Merrily We Roll Along | Will Win: | Daniel Radcliffe: Merrily We Roll Along |
| Should Win: | Daniel Radcliffe: Merrily We Roll Along | Should Win: | Daniel Radcliffe: Merrily We Roll Along |
| Overlooked: | Ricky Ubeda: Illinoise | Overlooked: | Ricky Ubeda: Illinoise |
| Jeff's Notes | Radcliffe is the biggest and best reason to see Merrily. He delivers, and this caps a Broadway career of being overlooked. |
| Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Bebe Neuwirth: Cabaret | Will Win: | Lindsay Mendez: Merrily We Roll Along |
| Should Win: | Lindsay Mendez: Merrily We Roll Along | Should Win: | Lindsay Mendez: Merrily We Roll Along |
| Overlooked: | Hannah Cruz, Jenn Colella: Suffs | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | Bebe is making a hell of a return, and she's the only thing about Cabaret that got universal acclaim. Plus, I can't imagine that show going home without any trophies. |
| Best Book of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Adam Rapp & Justin Levine: The Outsiders | Will Win: | Shaina Taub: Suffs |
| Should Win: | Adam Rapp & Justin Levine: The Outsiders | Should Win: | Adam Rapp & Justin Levine: The Outsiders |
| Overlooked: | Justin Peck & Jackie Sibblies Drury: Illinoise | Overlooked: | Justin Peck & Jackie Sibblies Drury: Illinoise |
| Jeff's Notes | Rapp and Levine's book added layers to the novel's characters, while staying true to the beloved classic. And the book into song element was seamless. Of course, I could say the same about Brunstetter's book for The Notebook. |
| Best Score Written for the Theater |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Will Butler: Stereophonic | Will Win: | Will Butler: Stereophonic |
| Should Win: | Jamestown Revival & Justin Levine: The Outsiders | Should Win: | Adam Guettel: Days of Wine and Roses |
| Overlooked: | Ingrid Michaelson: The Notebook, PigPen Theatre Co.: Water For Elephants | Overlooked: | Ingrid Michaelson: The Notebook |
| Jeff's Notes | I think the Tony voters will want to look "hip," but The Outsiders score, like its book, is a beautiful extension of its source, traditional but not really. |
| Best Orchestrations |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Justin Levine, Matt Hinkley & Jamestown Revival: The Outsiders | Will Win: | Jonathan Tunick: Merrily We Roll Along |
| Should Win: | Timo Andres: Illinoise | Should Win: | Timo Andres: Illinoise |
| Overlooked: | John Clancy & Carmel Dean: The Notebook | Overlooked: | Adam Guettel & Jamie Lawrence: Days of Wine and Roses |
| Jeff's Notes | Again, this could go to any of the nominees... |
| Best Revival of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Merrily We Roll Along | Will Win: | Merrily We Roll Along |
| Should Win: | Merrily We Roll Along | Should Win: | Merrily We Roll Along |
| Overlooked: | | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | Not my favorite show this year by a long shot, but Cabaret is too...much, Gutenberg is a distant memory, and Tommy is a loud disappointment. |
| Best Scenic Design of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Tim Hatley & Finn Ross: Back to the Future | Will Win: | Tim Hatley & Finn Ross: Back to the Future |
| Should Win: | David Korins: Here Lies Love | Should Win: | David Korins: Here Lies Love |
| Overlooked: | | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | Any of these could win, and honestly, they all are deserving, all for different reasons. |
| Best Lighting Design of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Bradley King & David Bengali: Water For Elephants | Will Win: | Brian MacDevitt & Hana S. Kim: The Outsiders |
| Should Win: | Brandon Stirling Baker: Illinoise | Should Win: | Brian MacDevitt & Hana S. Kim: The Outsiders |
| Overlooked: | Justin Townsend: Here Lies Love | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | They'll want to give something to Elephants. and I think this might be it's best chance. |
| Best Costume Design of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Paul Tazewell: Suffs | Will Win: | Paul Tazewell: Suffs |
| Should Win: | Linda Cho: The Great Gatsby | Should Win: | Paul Tazewell: Suffs |
| Overlooked: | | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | Cabaret is just too... much (again), Gatsby is traditionally splashy, Elephants isn't circus-splashy enough. |
| Best Sound Design of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Gareth Owen: Hell's Kitchen | Will Win: | Kai Harada: Merrily We Roll Along |
| Should Win: | M.L. Dogg & Cody Spencer: Here Lies Love | Should Win: | Cody Spencer: The Outsiders |
| Overlooked: | Gareth Owen: Back to the Future | Overlooked: | Kai Harada: Days of Wine and Roses |
| Jeff's Notes | I don't know much about sound design, but I'm guessing a pop/jukebox score sounding good in a theater could get a lot of votes. Here Lies Love was a technical marvel, and deserves all of those awards, |
| Best Direction of a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Maria Friedman: Merrily We Roll Along | Will Win: | Maria Friedman: Merrily We Roll Along |
| Should Win: | Jessica Stone: Water For Elephants or Danya Taymor: The Outsiders | Should Win: | Danya Taymor: The Outsiders |
| Overlooked: | Alex Timbers - Here Lies Love | Overlooked: | Justin Peck: Illinoise |
| Jeff's Notes | Maria Friedman will win because she's "fixed" the unfixable. She isn't even in my top 5 for the season. Both Stone and Taymor found the most creative and cohesive ways to bring their shows' worlds to vibrant life. |
| Best Choreography |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Justin Peck: Illinoise | Will Win: | Justin Peck: Illinoise |
| Should Win: | Justin Peck: Illinoise | Should Win: | Justin Peck: Illinoise |
| Overlooked: | | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | There simply isn't another choice here. |
| The Plays: Appropriate, Purlie Victorious, Stereophonic |
| Jeff's Notes | I'll be shocked if Stereophonic and Appropriate don't win Best Play and Best Revival of a Play, respectively. Same with Sarah Paulson for Leading Actress. I hope that Kara Young wins - hers was a tour de force performance, though I won't be upset if Sarah Pidgeon wins. The Featured Actor category is anybody's guess, though I think either Eli Gelb or Tom Pecinka are likely. Edge to Pecinka for me. |
| Mike's Notes: | I think Kara Young will edge out the Stereophonic women for Best Supporting Actress in a Play. Appropriate and Stereophonic seem like near-locks in their respective categories, as does Sarah Paulson. Among the Stereophonic men, I slightly favor Eli Gelb to win. |
| Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Jonathan Groff: Merrily We Roll Along | Will Win: | Jonathan Groff: Merrily We Roll Along |
| Should Win: | Brian d'Arcy James: Days of Wine and Roses | Should Win: | Brody Grant: The Outsiders |
| Overlooked: | | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | Groff is popular and does a fine job in the comeback show of all time. James is giving the performance of his storied career. Grant could be a dark horse. |
| Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | Maleah Joi Moon: Hell's Kitchen | Will Win: | Kelli O'Hara: Days of Wine and Roses |
| Should Win: | Kelli O'Hara: Days of Wine and Roses | Should Win: | Kelli O'Hara: Days of Wine and Roses |
| Overlooked: | | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | Any of these women are deserving by all accounts. Plunkett is amazing, and she could pull off an upset. That said, I've never seen O'Hara do better work. |
| Best Musical |
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: |
| Will Win: | The Outsiders | Will Win: | Suffs |
| Should Win: | The Outsiders | Should Win: | Illinoise |
| Overlooked: | The Notebook, Here Lies Love | Overlooked: | Days of Wine and Roses, Here Lies Love |
| Jeff's Notes | This could go several ways. Hell's Kitchen is possible. How great to have so many viable winners for a change! (I'd be thrilled for Illinoise!) |
HOW IT STACKS UP:
Jeff Predicts: 4 - Merrily We Roll Along, 3 - The Outsiders, 3 - Stereophonic*, 2 - Appropriate*, 2 - Hell's Kitchen^, 1 - Back to the Future, 1 - Cabaret^, 1 - Illinoise, 1 - Purlie Victorious*, 1 - Suffs, 1 - Water For Elephants
Mike Predicts: 7 - Merrily We Roll Along, 3 - Suffs, 3 - Stereophonic*, 2 - Appropriate*, 1 - Back to the Future, 1 - Days of Wine and Roses, 1 - Illinoise, 1 - Purlie Victorious*, 1 - The Outsiders
* - For the plays, we just went with general thoughts on Best Play, Best Revival, and the acting categories. We both figure these 3 plays will have success in their other categories.
^ - These predictions are pure speculation, as I did not see Cabaret or Hell's Kitchen.
HOW DID WE DO?
Jeff: 10 out of 20: 50%
Mike: 11 out of 20: 55%
Mike wins every year! 😎
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