The 2025 Tony Awards:
Our Predictions
At last the Super Bowl of theater is upon us! As usual, Mike and I have given thought to all of the shows we've seen this season - including 2 new plays, 2 play revivals, 4 musical revivals and 9 new musicals. As such, we'll do our best to predict the winners in the musical categories at The 78th Annual Tony Awards, plus some thoughts on the play categories.
Below are our picks for "Will Win" and "Should Win," as well as notes for each. We've also included a few "Overlooked" nominees. Of course, we congratulate all of the nominees and winners. It was a great season!
| Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Jak Malone - Operation Mincemeat | Will Win: | Jak Malone - Operation Mincemeat |
| Should Win: | Taylor Trensch - Floyd Collins | Should Win: | Danny Burstein - Gypsy |
| Overlooked: | David Thaxton - Sunset Blvd. | Overlooked: | David Thaxton - Sunset Blvd. |
| Jeff's Notes | Too many viable choices - I loved them all. Malone's subtlety in an ocean of craziness was perfection. Burstein broke my heart. Trensch was superb, but he's the newest kid on this block, so... | ||
| Mike's Notes | I'd also put Taylor Trensch up there with Malone and Burstein for a trio of performances that would easily win in leaner years. | ||
| Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Natalie Venetia Belcon - Buena Vista Social Club | Will Win: | Natalie Venetia Belcon - Buena Vista Social Club |
| Should Win: | Justina Machado - Real Women Have Curves | Should Win: | Justina Machado - Real Women Have Curves |
| Overlooked: | Lea Salonga - Old Friends & Natasha Hodgson - Operation Mincemeat | Overlooked: | Lea Salonga - Old Friends |
| Mike's Notes | Again, there are several Tony-worthy performers here, including Belcon and Machado. | ||
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| Best Book of a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson and Hue Park | Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson and Hue Park |
| Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson and Hue Park | Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson and Hue Park |
| Overlooked: | Real Women Have Curves - Lisa Loomer and Nell Benjamin | Overlooked: | Real Women Have Curves - Lisa Loomer and Nell Benjamin |
| Jeff's Notes | Exactly what Mike said. | ||
| Mike's Notes | All the nominees are strong except for Buena Vista. Again, it's a shame Real Women isn't in the mix. | ||
| Best Score Written for the Theater | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson and Hue Park | Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson and Hue Park |
| Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson and Hue Park | Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson and Hue Park |
| Overlooked: | Overlooked: | ||
| Jeff's Notes | Again, I agree with Mike on this, though the same could be said for Death Becomes Her. | ||
| Mike's Notes | Probably the best opportunity for Dead Outlaw to pull off a mild upset. | ||
| Best Orchestrations | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson | Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson |
| Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson | Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Will Aronson |
| Overlooked: | Overlooked: | ||
| Jeff's Notes | There are really no losers in this bunch. I'd be thrilled if Floyd Collins pulled an upset, and I wouldn't be surprised if Buena Vista Social Club won. | ||
| Mike's Notes | I'm being pretty bullish on Maybe Happy Ending to have a dominant evening - not as dominant as The Band's Visit but bigger than Kimberly Akimbo. I wouldn't be disappointed if veteran David Cullen (15 credits!) won his first Tony for Sunset Blvd. (I thought he'd win a few years ago for Company). | ||
| Best Revival of a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Sunset Blvd. | Will Win: | Sunset Blvd. |
| Should Win: | Floyd Collins | Should Win: | Floyd Collins |
| Overlooked: | Overlooked: | ||
| Jeff's Notes | Gypsy has some exceptional performances, but otherwise it's pretty standard. Floyd Collins was a revelation. | ||
| Mike's Notes | Gypsy got the best reviews and seems to be doing well in the precursor awards, so I wouldn't be shocked if it won. | ||
| Best Scenic Design of a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Dane Laffrey & George Reeve | Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Dane Laffrey & George Reeve |
| Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Dane Laffrey & George Reeve | Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending - Dane Laffrey & George Reeve |
| Overlooked: | Redwood - Jason Ardizzone-West & Hana S. Kim | Overlooked: | Redwood - Jason Ardizzone-West & Hana S. Kim |
| Best Lighting Design of a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Sunset Blvd. - Jack Knowles | Will Win: | Sunset Blvd. - Jack Knowles |
| Should Win: | Sunset Blvd. - Jack Knowles | Should Win: | Sunset Blvd. - Jack Knowles |
| Overlooked: | Overlooked: | ||
| Best Costume Design of a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Death Becomes Her - Paul Tazewell | Will Win: | Death Becomes Her - Paul Tazewell |
| Should Win: | Death Becomes Her - Paul Tazewell | Should Win: | Death Becomes Her - Paul Tazewell |
| Overlooked: | Overlooked: | ||
| Jeff's Notes | It is definitely Paul Tazewell's year. A Tony to go with his Oscar. | ||
| Best Sound Design of a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Sunset Blvd. - Adam Fisher | Will Win: | Sunset Blvd. - Adam Fisher |
| Should Win: | Floyd Collins - Dan Moses Schreier | Should Win: | |
| Overlooked: | Death Becomes Her - Peter Hylenski | Overlooked: | Death Becomes Her - Peter Hylenski |
| Jeff's Notes | The yodeling echoed perfectly... and the balance in the cave that is the Vivian Beaumont was amazing! | ||
| Best Direction of a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Jamie Lloyd - Sunset Blvd. | Will Win: | Michael Arden - Maybe Happy Ending |
| Should Win: | Michael Arden - Maybe Happy Ending | Should Win: | Michael Arden - Maybe Happy Ending |
| Overlooked: | Robert Hastie - Operation Mincemeat | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | I really want Arden to win - he created a beautiful miracle. But I think that a perfectly executed gimmick will woo the Tony voters. | ||
| Mike's Notes | I'm going against the consensus a bit here; I won't be surprised or disappointed if Jamie Lloyd wins. | ||
| Best Choreography | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Buena Vista Social Club - Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck | Will Win: | Buena Vista Social Club - Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck |
| Should Win: | Buena Vista Social Club - Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck | Should Win: | Buena Vista Social Club - Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck |
| Overlooked: | Sunset Blvd. - Fabian Aloise | Overlooked: | |
| Jeff's Notes | This may be the bone the voters throw Boop. | ||
| Plays and Play Revivals: Oh, Mary!, John Proctor is the Villain, Romeo + Juliet, Our Town, Yellow Face | |||
| Jeff's Notes | Well, once again, I didn't get to as many plays as I had hoped to, but by and large the ones I did see were wonderful. Oh, Mary! was sublime and perfectly executed Cole Escola's work deserves all of its accolades, and I expect he will be called to the podium at least once. Sam Pinkelton's direction allowed it to breathe and stay in control. But John Proctor is the Villain is the new high bar for excellence for me. A new generation honestly portrayed with timely themes, it still resounded with this Gen-Xer. Excellent drama is timeless. The acting was perfection - I'd be thrilled if Sink, Ebert and Strazza won, the direction even better - Danya Taymor's work is nothing short of perfect. While I didn't really care for Our Town, there were some great performances that were overlooked, namely Zoe Deutch and Ephraim Sykes, who breathed modern vitality into Emily and George. Much like Proctor, the revival of Romeo + Juliet became a vibrant reminder that this classic can appeal to Gen-Z. And I am here for it! That said, Kit Connor was robbed of a Tony nod. I did also see the PBS broadcast of Yellow Face, and I thoroughly enjoyed it. Its Tony nominations were all well-deserved. If any of them win, I'd be happy. | ||
| Mike's Notes | I saw only maybe a third of the eligible nominees overall, but I can say I'd definitely pick John Proctor is the Villain over the favorite Oh, Mary! for Best Play (though Escola should absolutely win Best Actor to recognize his achievement). On the revival side, Jeff saw more than I did, but based on the PBS broadcast, I'd say Yellow Face is a plausible pick for both "will win" and "should win." Aside from that, acknowledging that I haven't seen enough to make any reliable picks, I'll just list a few performers and other artists I consider absolutely Tony-worthy: Sadie Sink, Francis Jue, Fina Strazza, Danya Taymor, Holly Pierson, Natasha Katz, and Palmer Hefferan. | ||
| Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Darren Criss - Maybe Happy Ending | Will Win: | Darren Criss - Maybe Happy Ending |
| Should Win: | Darren Criss - Maybe Happy Ending | Should Win: | Jeremy Jordan - Floyd Collins |
| Overlooked: | Overlooked: | ||
| Jeff's Notes | If Nicole wins, Tom Francis just might, too. Should Jeremy be named, I would be very happy, too. | ||
| Mike's Notes | Tom Francis has a shot, but I didn't see his performance (along with Groff and Iglehart) so I didn't figure him in. | ||
| Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Nicole Scherzinger - Sunset Blvd. | Will Win: | Audra McDonald - Gypsy |
| Should Win: | Audra McDonald - Gypsy | Should Win: | Audra McDonald - Gypsy |
| Overlooked: | Helen J. Shen - Maybe Happy Ending | Overlooked: | Helen J. Shen - Maybe Happy Ending |
| Jeff's Notes | A definitive "Rose's Turn" does not a full performance make. Audra's brilliant, but I said what I said. And I wouldn't count out Jasmine Amy Rogers, either. | ||
| Mike's Notes | My "will win" shifted recently from Scherzinger to McDonald just based on a gut feeling; I'll be happy either way. | ||
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| Best Musical | |||
| Jeff Predicts: | Mike Predicts: | ||
| Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending | Will Win: | Maybe Happy Ending |
| Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending | Should Win: | Maybe Happy Ending |
| Overlooked: | Real Women Have Curves | Overlooked: | Real Women Have Curves |
| Jeff's Notes | It's really disappointing that Real Women didn't make the cut. | ||
| Mike's Notes | Real Women is my second-favorite musical of the season, so it's a shame it didn't get nominated. | ||
HOW IT STACKS UP:
Jeff predicts: 6 - Maybe Happy Ending, 5 - Sunset Blvd., 2 - Buena Vista Social Club, 1 - Death Becomes Her, 1 - Operation Mincemeat
Mike predicts: 7 - Maybe Happy Ending, 3 - Sunset Blvd., 2 - Buena Vista Social Club, 1 - Death Becomes Her, 1 - Gypsy, 1 - Operation Mincemeat
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