The 2026 Tony Awards: Our Predictions

The 2026 Tony Awards: Our Predictions

It feels like this year, more than many recent years, how the Tony Awards will pan out is anybody's guess. Maybe it's because there are fewer possible entries than in recent years, or maybe it's because the cream really rose to the top this season, and most, if not all of the nominees in any given category are award-worthy. Probably it's both.

Could this be the year that we see a tie or two? Will the Tony voters reward traditional works or daring, boundary pushing storytelling? Will the Tonys be spread among all of the productions, or will one or two shows shut out all the rest? The only sure thing is that this year, nothing is a given and it will probably hold many surprises.

For us, the biggest potential spoiler among the new musicals could be Two Strangers, a sweet little musical that is solid in all respects, but has been largely ignored thanks to recent, huge new shows. As for the revivals, we had strong, mostly negative feelings about The Rocky Horror Show, but will it be a spoiler for the two biggies, Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ragtime, which seem to be pitted against each other by the fans? Could Rocky come in when the votes are split between the two camps?

At any rate, as always we are putting our predictions out there, this year only in the musical categories, as we didn't see a single play this season. (You'll see that we marked the two scores nominations from plays as "n/a" below.) What we did was pick who we think the Tony Award will go to, as well as rank each list with our personal choices, 1 being our top pick through 5 being our last pick. Mike and I agree on two things: in nearly all cases, the Tony could go to any of them, and at any given moment any nominee could be given a different ranking!

Here are our predictions:

    

Jeff	Tony	Category & Nominees	Tony	Mike
		Best Score Written for theTheatre (Music &/or Lyrics)
n/a		Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman - Music - Caroline Shaw		n/a
n/a		August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone - Music - Steve Bargonetti		n/a
1	x	The Lost Boys - Music and Lyrics - The Rescues		1
2		Schmigadoon! - Music and Lyrics - Cinco Paul		3
3		Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) - Music and Lyrics - Jim Barne and Kit Buchan	x	2
		Best Book of a Musical
1		The Lost Boys - David Hornsby and Chris Hoch		1
2	x	Schmigadoon! - Cinco Paul	x	3
4		Titanique - Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli and Tye Blue		2
3		Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) - Jim Barne and Kit Buchan		4
		Best Orchestrations
5		Doug Besterman and Mike Morris - Schmigadoon!		5
1		Ethan Popp, Adrianne "AG" Gonzalez, Gabriel Mann, Kyler England - The Lost Boys		2
4		Lux Pyramid - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)		4
2	x	Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt - Cats: The Jellicle Ball	x	3
3		Brian Usifer - Chess		1

  

  

Jeff	Tony	Category & Nominees	Tony	Mike
		Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
1		Ali Louis Bourzgui - The Lost Boys		1
4		André De Shields - Cats: The Jellicle Ball		4
5		Bryce Pinkham - Chess		5
2	x	Ben Levi Ross - Ragtime	x	2
3		Layton Williams - Titanique		3
		Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
1	x	Shoshana Bean - The Lost Boys	x	1
4		Hannah Cruz - Chess		3
5		Rachel Dratch - Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		5
2		Ana Gasteyer - Schmigadoon!		4
3		Nichelle Lewis - Ragtime		2
		Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
2		Nicholas Christopher - Chess		2
5		Luke Evans - Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		5
1	x	Joshua Henry - Ragtime	x	1
3		Sam Tutty - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)		3
4		Brandon Uranowitz - Ragtime		4
		Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
4		Sara Chase - Schmigadoon!		4
5		Stephanie Hsu - Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		5
1	x	Caissie Levy- Ragtime	x	1
3		Marla Mindelle - Titanique		2
2		Christiani Pitts - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)		3

  

Jeff	Tony	Category & Nominees	Tony	Mike
		Best Direction of a Musical
2		Michael Arden - The Lost Boys		2
3	x	Lear deBessonet - Ragtime		3
4		Christopher Gattelli - Schmigadoon!		4
5		Tim Jackson - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)		5
1		Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch - Cats: The Jellicle Ball	x	1
		Best Choreography
1	x	Christopher Gattelli - Schmigadoon!		3
3		Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant - The Lost Boys		2
2		Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons - Cats: The Jellicle Ball	x	1
4		Ellenore Scott - Ragtime		4
5		Ani Taj - Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		5

  

  

Jeff	Tony	Category & Nominees	Tony	Mike
		Best Scenic Design of a Musical
5		dots - Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		5
4		Soutra Gilmour - Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)		4
3		Rachel Hauck - Cats: The Jellicle Ball		3
1	x	Dane Laffrey - The Lost Boys	x	1
2		Scott Pask - Schmigadoon!		2
		Best Costume Design of a Musical		2
1		Linda Cho - Ragtime		2
4		Linda Cho - Schmigadoon!		4
3	x	Qween Jean - Cats: The Jellicle Ball	x	1
2		Ryan Park - The Lost Boys		3
5		David I. Reynoso - Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		5
		Best Lighting Design of a Musical
2		Kevin Adams - Chess		2
1	x	Jen Schriever and Michael Arden - The Lost Boys	x	1
5		Jane Cox - Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		3
4		Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design) - Ragtime		5
3		Donald Holder - Schmigadoon!		4
		Best Sound Design of a Musical
1	x	Adam Fisher - The Lost Boys	x	1
2		Kai Harada - Cats: The Jellicle Ball		4
4		Kai Harada - Ragtime		3
5		Brian Ronan - Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		5
3		Walter Trarbach - Schmigadoon!		2

  

Jeff	Tony	Category & Nominees	Tony	Mike
		Best Revival of a Musical
1	x	Cats: The Jellicle Ball		1
2		Ragtime	x	2
3		Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show		3
		Best Musical
1	x	The Lost Boys		1
4		Schmigadoon!	x	4
3		Titanique		2
2		Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)		3